School shootings in the US: Bullets bleed local economies too; here's the hidden toll

Every time a school shooting occurs in the United States, the country is gripped by grief. Public attention rightly focuses on the devastating human toll: The lives lost, the families shattered, and the communities plunged into mourning. But beyond the grief, another quieter consequence unfolds in parallel. A measurable, lasting disruption to local economic life.

A forthcoming study, exclusively previewed by the Harvard Business Review , sheds light on this underexplored dimension. Drawing from empirical analyses and behavioural experiments, the research uncovers how fatal school shootings trigger a sustained decline in everyday consumer activity in the surrounding community. People avoid shopping, dining out, and spending time in public. Not because of grief alone, but because of heightened anxiety, the fear that the violence could strike again, anywhere.

A measurable dip in daily spendingBetween 2013 and 2024, the US witnessed 1,843 school shootings, nearly two per week, according to the K-12 School Shooting Database. This figure is 57 times higher than all other G7 nations combined. While the statistics are shocking, the new research draws attention to what happens after the media spotlight fades. Local economies quietly contract as communities retreat from public life.

The findings are based on several layers of data. One key source was household-level grocery purchase data from NielsenIQ’s Homescan panel, a consumer program that tracks retail and grocery spending patterns. Researchers analysed trends across 63 fatal school shootings between 2012 and 2019, and compared weekly spending before and after shootings in directly affected counties, while controlling for seasonal trends and household-specific behaviours. Results showed a significant 2.1% drop in household grocery spending that persisted for six months.

In economic terms, this seemingly modest decline translates into approximately $5.4 million in lost sales for a county’s retailers. For small businesses, many of which operate on thin margins, this loss is far from trivial. In fact, it can mean the difference between staying open or shutting down.

The chilling effect extended beyond groceries. Using foot traffic and transaction data from SafeGraph, a company that provides high-quality geospatial data on physical locations, and Advan, which tracks foot traffic, trade areas, and visitor demographics across buildings in the US, Canada, and several other countries, researchers analysed consumer behaviour at restaurants and beverage retailers following 44 fatal school shootings between 2019 and 2022. Restaurant spending dropped by an average of 8%, while overall food and beverage-related retail fell by 3%.

Anxiety affects consumer behaviourControlled behavioural experiments further confirmed the findings. Participants exposed to news about a fatal school shooting expressed significantly greater reluctance to visit public spaces compared to those who read about other tragic events such as car accidents or drownings. This hesitancy was driven not by sadness or grief, but by fear: A feeling that the violence could repeat itself in their own community.

Interestingly, the study previewed by the Harvard Business Review found no increase in online shopping or other substitute activities. Instead, people simply withdrew from consumption altogether. “Anxiety was the strongest predictor of avoidance,” the authors noted. “Far more than sadness or grief.”

Political and cultural context also influenced the economic fallout. In more liberal-leaning counties, grocery spending declined by about 2.4% following a school shooting, compared to just 1.3% in conservative areas. The Harvard Business Review reports that this pattern stems from differing interpretations of mass violence. Liberals tend to see school shootings as symptomatic of systemic issues, which heightens their perception of future risk. Conservatives are more likely to view such acts as isolated incidents, reducing the sense of personal threat.

Collateral damage, counted in dollarsThese insights underscore the reality that school shootings, even when geographically limited, reverberate through entire communities: Emotionally and economically. They destabilise local economies by eroding the very behaviours that sustain community life. For businesses, recognising this hidden cost is the first step towards meaningful, long-term recovery.

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