Here's what ChatGPT's prediction on the new Pope says...

In a historic development blending ancient tradition with cutting-edge technology, the Roman Catholic Church stands at a pivotal moment in its 2,000-year-old history. Following the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88, cardinals from across the globe have gathered in Vatican City for the solemn and secretive process of selecting the next pope. While the sacred conclave — governed by centuries-old ritual — formally begins behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, a modern player has entered the scene: artificial intelligence.

According to a report from MailOnline, in an unprecedented development, AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT have already analysed betting odds, ecclesiastical trends, and historical data to predict Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the frontrunner to succeed Pope Francis.


ChatGPT predicts Cardinal Pietro Parolin as papal frontrunner

Despite the conclave’s inaccessibility, modern data tools have ventured into the prediction arena. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, trained on a vast corpus of theological writings, historical records, and real-time news analysis, has named Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the most likely candidate. Parolin, who currently serves as the Vatican Secretary of State, holds a commanding 37% lead on platforms like Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market.
His experience as a top Vatican diplomat since 2013, including his role in managing the delicate 2018 Vatican-China agreement, has earned him broad respect across the Church’s global hierarchy. His ability to mediate between the Church’s conservative and reformist factions positions him as a strong compromise candidate.


A secluded ritual of global importance

The papal conclave is derived from the Latin phrase cum clave, meaning “with a key,” reflecting the locked seclusion in which the process is conducted. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, totaling 135 electors in the current conclave. Once the proceedings begin, the cardinals are cut off from all outside communication — including electronic devices — ensuring that their decision remains confidential and spiritually guided.

The election requires a two-thirds majority, with ballots cast up to four times a day. Until consensus is reached, black smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney signals an inconclusive vote. Only the appearance of white smoke confirms that a new pope has been selected. This tradition, unchanged for centuries, symbolizes both continuity and divine will in a time of leadership transition.


Cardinal Parolin: Diplomat, advisor, and contender for the papacy

Parolin’s background offers a rare combination of theological depth, diplomatic skill, and institutional continuity. Fluent in multiple languages and known for his understated pragmatism, he has often acted as Pope Francis’ closest advisor in international affairs.

However, his past remarks — such as describing Ireland’s legalization of same-sex marriage in 2015 as “a defeat for humanity” — have drawn criticism from more progressive elements within the Church. Nonetheless, his centrist approach and familiarity with Church governance make him a likely choice in a conclave where compromise is often key.


Tight race with global implications

While Parolin leads the AI prediction models and betting markets, other contenders remain in close competition. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, widely known as “the Asian Francis,” holds a strong 32% probability. His charisma, pastoral style, and appeal to younger Catholics have positioned him as a serious candidate, especially for those seeking a globalized and inclusive Church leadership.

Other notable candidates include Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who could become the first Black pope, and Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, known for his strong conservative stances. Each candidate represents different theological, geographic, and political currents within the global Church.


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