To war or not to war? How the Iran-Israel ceasefire unfolded – and what's next

It began with missile sirens and bunker-busting bombs and ended with a social media post. In less than 48 hours, the world witnessed an extraordinary diplomatic about-turn, as President Donald Trump brokered a sudden ceasefire between Israel and Iran following days of airstrikes, retaliatory missile launches, and a near-miss with a wider regional war.

The chaos reached its peak when Iran fired missiles at a key US base in Qatar, prompting Trump to call both Tel Aviv and Tehran to the negotiating table with blunt threats and unexpected praise. By Tuesday morning, the missiles were (mostly) silent, Israeli jets were recalled mid-air, and the Middle East entered a fragile peace declared not through formal diplomacy but via Truth Social.

Trump hailed it as a historic success: “It was my great honour to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!” But intelligence reports and the reality on the ground suggest the truth is more complicated. While the missiles have stopped for now, questions over the durability of the truce and what comes next loom large.

A 48-hour diplomatic scramble
The ceasefire talks gathered momentum following the US bombing of three major Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, including Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. In the aftermath, Iran launched a limited missile strike on the US air base at Al-Udeid in Qatar. Though no casualties were reported, the attack prompted a flurry of high-level calls and behind-the-scenes negotiations. According to a senior White House official, Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and told him bluntly that no further US military action was forthcoming.

Meanwhile, US special envoy Steve Witkoff reached out to Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, urging a return to the negotiating table. “We’re already talking to each other, not just directly, but also through interlocutors,” Witkoff told Fox News. Iran, while initially denying any agreement, indicated it would halt its attacks if Israel ceased airstrikes by 4am Tehran time.

Trump’s social media posts acted as both a megaphone and a tool of diplomacy. “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION,” he warned after Israeli jets prepared for strikes even after the ceasefire announcement. Vice President JD Vance, caught off-guard during a live interview, confirmed the administration was scrambling to finalise the agreement just as Trump declared it done.

The BBC reported that the ceasefire, finalised within 24 hours of the US base attack, followed a period of “frantic” negotiations involving Qatar, which played a key mediating role. Qatar’s prime minister confirmed that Trump had called the Emir directly after the Iranian attack, using the moment as an opening to broker peace.

A fragile truce under fire
Even after Trump’s “complete and total CEASEFIRE” post, violence continued. Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel after the declared ceasefire time, hitting a residential building in Beersheba and killing four civilians. In response, Israel struck regime targets in Tehran, with officials claiming “hundreds” of Iranian forces were killed.

Despite these violations, both sides later formally accepted the truce. Iran’s Araghchi said, “we have no intention to continue our response” if Israeli attacks stopped, while Netanyahu's office confirmed Israel had achieved its war goals.

Trump expressed fury at the continued strikes, accusing both sides of acting recklessly. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f they’re doing,” he said before boarding Air Force One to attend the NATO summit. Yet once airborne, Trump again took to social media, declaring: “All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran, Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!”

At the UN, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani signalled that diplomacy could still prevail: “Diplomacy and dialogue are the only path to resolving the unnecessary crisis over Iran’s peaceful programme.”

What lies ahead?
While the missiles have fallen silent, for now, uncertainty looms. A preliminary US intelligence report indicates Iran’s nuclear programme may be only months behind schedule not “destroyed.” Experts warn that Iran still has substantial capability and remains a threat. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper told lawmakers, “They do,” when asked whether Iran still posed a danger to US troops.

The ceasefire opens the door for renewed talks, though questions remain about who in Iran has the authority to negotiate. “The country’s leadership and the regime is not cohesive enough to be able to come to some sort of negotiations at this point,” said Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations. Witkoff insists discussions have already begun and are “promising.”

Trump’s strategy bypassing traditional diplomacy and relying on a tight inner circle has unnerved some in Washington. Congressional leaders received little warning before the US strikes, and briefings were abruptly postponed.

Still, the administration sees opportunity. “We didn’t blow up the diplomacy,” Vance said. “Our hope … is that this maybe can reset here.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed: “The president’s made that clear from the very beginning: His preference is to deal with this issue diplomatically.”